GR Exclusive: Stock Market Prediction, There is a continuous correction in the stock market. The major index of the market broke in the 5th consecutive month in February. Earlier in 1996, there was such a long selling. The process of decline continuing for 5 months starts from October 2024. Earlier in September 2024, the market touched all time high. But triggers like high valuations and then Amreki Tariff put strong pressure on the market. Investors invested in the smallcap and midcap sector suffered the most damage to the market fall. The bad news is that due to high valuations, the trend of further decline in both sectors is expected to continue.

Smallcap index from record high has slipped to about 28%. Sensex and Nifty slipped up to 5-6% only in the month of February. There is a clearance of correction in the market from foreign institutional investors (FIIS), who have withdrawn more than 1 lakh crore rupees in only 2 months in 2025. In such a situation it is important to understand that How long can the continuing decline in the stock market go ahead? Which triggers are important for the market? Where is the opportunity to invest in the decline of the market? To answer all these questions, we had an exclusive conversation with Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) research VP Sneha Poddar …

Question-1: Tariffs for the stock market, high valuations are triggers or any factor is affecting the market?
Answer-1: Correction has been going on in the stock market for the last 4-5 months, which started due to slowness in high valuations and earnings. Apart from this, there was some tiredness in macro factors. After that Donald Trump started the tariff war. The dollar index was also running on all time high. Apart from this, foreign investors were also not getting comfort, due to which they sold continuously. Due to these reasons, there was a steady decline in the market. Currently, talking about domestic front, largecap has reached its fair level. However, midcap and smallcap are still on a few premium valuations. In such a situation, there is a possibility of walletism in mid and smallcap. Slodown will be seen in the earnings till the next few quarters. Because there is also slowness in domestic consumption. Also, due to tariffs, global uncertainty remains, the effect of which is difficult to estimate.

Question-2: At what level is the Sensex and Nifty watching by the end of March?
Answer-2: It is possible that the Nifty would see further bouncebacks. Because people hope that due to the counter tariff from Mexico, Canada and China, American can give them some relief on tariffs. If this relief is available, then you can get a releep rally for a short term in the market. But by the end of March, the decline in the market may deepen. Because from April 2, American tariffs will be applicable to India. After this, we will get the clarity that what is going to be tariff on India.

Question-3: Can the Nifty 50 index slide from 18000 to 20000 levels below?
Answer-3: See the bearish sentiment then any level can break down. But if you talk on the base of fair valuations, then the Nifty can slip up to 21800/21300. The market should be stable at this level. During this time, if something very bad news or trigger is made, then these levels can also slip down, the rest is not possible to go below it at the moment.

Question-4: In 2025, only 2 months FIIS has sold more than 1 lakh crore rupees. What do you think that will become net buyers in the market?
Answer-4: It is a bit difficult to say when FIIS will be net buyers. Because many global factors are included for this. Whether or not the interest rates will decrease further. Donald Trump will impose tariffs on which countries. There is talk of putting tariffs on Europe as well. The list includes other emerging markets including India. As a domestic triggers, the earnings sentiments are not very positive. However, we can say that Fiis can return from the second half of April. Because then the earnings will become stable. Also, by that time, valuations will come to a lot of comfort level.

Question-5: Has the capital gains continue to sell due to increase in taxes due to increase in capital gains tax?
Answer-5: See the capital gains tax has not increased for the first time. Changes have been made in taxes many times before. We have seen the short term effect of tax increase. However, Captain Gain was a market rather than increasing tax and this factor-in has also been done. At which level the more important US dollar for FIIS is, the interest rates will remain on all these triggers.

Question-6: The new financial year i.e. FY26 is about to begin. In such a situation, at which level are you watching the Sensex and Nifty? Also, which events will be a special focus?
Answer-6: Talking about the new financial year from the market perspective, it will be stable in 2-3 months. After that we can also see a little correction. Because earnings will not be very supportive. So the recovery that should come from the second half will be a trigger point. Talking about the market level, we can expect 24000 and 25000 for Nifty back. However, it is difficult to touch the previous record in FY26. Talking about the major events, Donald Trump's final tariff policy will be a clearance and how much trade war it grows will be monitored. Also, it is very important to get stability at the existing level at the existing level, which is the situation at the geo-politics level. In this, the positive point for India is that oil prices have fallen from geo-political tension, it will benefit. Because India is a net importer. Raw will help reduce raw material costs for companies due to reduced crude prices. Also, the action of the Reserve Bank will also be monitored on interest rates. Whether he cuts the rate further or not. In such a situation, one should recover from here after the market fall. Will try to touch your previous record high back.

Question-7: Which sectors are you eyeing amid the ongoing decline in the stock market?
Answer-7: So you must have seen that the focus of the government is at revival. In such a situation, we hope that the conjunctival desirement segment will start to revive from here. Recovery has arrived at the rural level. The Urban slowness can be seen recovering from the first and then from the second quarter. Jewelry, retail, travel and auto recovery can be seen in the consumer description segment. Because the arrival of extra income in the hands of customers will increase the purchase power. Talk about investment, along with banking in the BFSI segment, Valuations in NBFC are comfortable. After the RBI rate cut, their credit cost is seen getting peak-out. From here, NBFC is becoming a good opportunity to invest in the sector. There is a slowness in the credit in banking but the asset Quali remained intact.

Question-8: What would you like to advise for investors from long term and short term perspective?
Answer-8: My choice for short term is Varun Beverages. The summer season has almost started. The month of February was also hot in some states. Voluum is quite strong. The stock has seen a significant decline due to the launch of Campa Cola of Reliance. Because there was fear of competition. We believe that many players can survive in it. Competition is not a big factor. The company is expanding very fast in African markets. The second pick is ICICI Bank. The quarterly bank has presented strong results. Asset quality has also always been intact. Graudurary is moving towards higher lending portfolio, which is a high margin.